FSV Mainz 05 vs Paderborn - Predictions & Odds

FSV Mainz 05

Paderborn

Bundesliga·MD1

FSV Mainz 05

Paderborn

Head-to-head

FSV Mainz 05

lasts meetings

Paderborn

4Wins

2Draws

0Wins

Our analysis

The market positions Mayence as the favorite, as if playing at home was enough. Their last two home outings suggest otherwise: goals, and at both ends.

Mayence leaking at home

Their last two home games ended in defeat, 1-3 and then 3-4, with goals at both ends each time. The attack isn't the problem, they've scored 18 goals in the last six matches, but whenever the club plays at home, their defense crumbles.

Paderborn scores as many as they concede

Paderborn comes in with a clear profile for this period: 12 goals scored to 13 conceded. A team that regularly finds the back of the net, but lets in just as many, including away from home.

The restart, an unknown factor

Up front, Mayence can count on Nadiem Amiri, 12 goals last season and confident from the penalty spot. But being the first matchday, we must stay level-headed: the Rhineland side are without Nebel and Hollerbach, Paderborn without Götze, and a league opener always brings its share of surprises.

The matchup trends

The stats below highlight why goals at both ends are shaping up: Mayence's offensive output, home defensive frailties, and Paderborn's form.

Over 1.5 goals6 matches out of 6

Over 2.5 goals4 matches out of 6

Under 2.5 goals2 matches out of 6

Both teams to score4 matches out of 6

Clean sheetFSV Mainz 052 matches out of 6

Clean sheetPaderborn0 matches out of 6

Goal in the 1st half6 matches out of 6

Over 9.5 corners3 matches out of 4

Over 4.5 cards1 match out of 4

Their last 6 meetings

29.02.20 · Bundesliga

05.10.19 · Bundesliga

31.01.15 · Bundesliga

24.08.14 · Bundesliga

15.04.08 · 2. Bundesliga

6-1

15.04.082. Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05

6-1

Paderborn

04.11.07 · 2. Bundesliga

1-1

04.11.072. Bundesliga

Paderborn

1-1

FSV Mainz 05

The questions worth asking

Isn't Mayence the favorite at home?

The market thinks so, but their last two home games saw the nets shake at both ends. Playing at home hasn't shielded them.

Why target goals rather than a winner?

Because the winner remains very open, while both defenses offer repeated chances. The bet is based on what's most readable: goals will be scored.

What could make the bet fail?

A silent Paderborn. Their attack is far from explosive, and a restart can become cagey quickly. That's the real risk to keep in mind.

And the bet to remember

The bet: both teams to score. Confidence is high on seeing goals at both ends, slightly more measured given offensive absences and the unknown of a first matchday. To avoid: convincing yourself of a clear winner, because in this match, the outcome is anything but certain.

Confidence

The bet to remember

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Odds1.68

Vave

* Cryptos.bet analyses, it does not bet for you. This pick is the outcome our data rates as the most solid, not a guaranteed result or betting advice.

Written by

Adrien Costa

Football Analyst

Football analyst at Cryptos.bet. I look at every match without preconceptions: recent form, absentees, a team's momentum. Guessing a scoreline doesn't interest me. Finding the matches where the market gets it wrong, where the odds pay more than the real risk, does. I work fully independent of the bookmakers.