Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest - Premier League

Liverpool start patched up

Liverpool begin the Premier League short-handed everywhere – centre-back, right-back, winger – with no major reinforcements this summer and with Andoni Iraola only just arriving in the dugout. Joe Gomez's muscle injury further weakens the core, and recent results betray the flaws: 12 goals conceded in their last six matches.

Forest score away from home

Nottingham Forest don't come as victims. On their recent travels, they beat Chelsea 3-1 and thrashed Sunderland 5-0, and last autumn they already left Anfield with a 0-3. Matz Sels settles in goal and Ousmane Diomande bolsters the defence, but it's their ability to strike on the counter that carries weight here.

Two attacks still lacking sharpness

The caveat is real. Liverpool progress without Hugo Ekitiké and Cody Gakpo has only one goal to his name this season, while Morgan Gibbs-White and Arnaud Kalimuendo are still searching for theirs on Forest's side. Their head-to-heads have often been a reminder – tight and short on goals – which tempers the enthusiasm.

Liverpool have the name and home advantage, but they are starting threadbare against a Forest side that scores on the road and has already made them buckle at Anfield. The bet goes on Over 2.5 Goals, with measured confidence: based on the logic of an open match, but more cautious given past meetings that were often locked down. Avoid betting on Liverpool to win without conceding; their defensive core is far too makeshift for that.