Fiorentina vs Frosinone - Predictions & Odds

Fiorentina

Frosinone

Serie A·MD2

Fiorentina

Frosinone

Head-to-head

Fiorentina

lasts meetings

Frosinone

2Wins

3Draws

1Win

Our analysis

For their season opener, Fiorentina are without their left-back, while a Frosinone side rebuilt with tens of millions arrives with no fear. The market installs Viola as favorites, but this game is much more open than it looks: Frosinone or the draw holds the advantage.

A Fiorentina missing their left flank

Fabiano Parisi misses the game, and that's an entire defensive side to reinvent for the home match. Neither Fiorentina nor their opponents have played a single official match this season, so an absence in a key position weighs heavier than during full rhythm. The attacking framework is there, with Moise Kean and his 8 goals last season, but Viola are weakened.

Frosinone's 100 million version

On the other side, Frosinone has little left in common with the team faced last year. The club has invested nearly 122 million euros this summer to overhaul its squad, a colossal project whose true face is still unknown. A new group can take time to gel, but it can also just as easily surprise an opponent taking them lightly.

The draw, a memory of a home-loving Viola

One pattern speaks louder than the table, skewed at this start of the season: in their recent reference home games, Fiorentina has conceded three draws in a row. At home, they tend to lock down matches rather than swing them, and the model only grants them a slim advantage despite their status. Their recent meetings actually tell two opposite stories, a wide 5-1 Florentine win then a draw, proof that nothing is written.

The matchup trends

The stats below detail the form of both teams and the history of their meetings.

Over 1.5 goals4 matches out of 6

Over 2.5 goals2 matches out of 6

Under 2.5 goals4 matches out of 6

Both teams to score4 matches out of 6

Clean sheetFiorentina1 match out of 6

Clean sheetFrosinone2 matches out of 6

Goal in the 1st half3 matches out of 6

Over 9.5 corners2 matches out of 6

Over 4.5 cards2 matches out of 4

Their last 6 meetings

The questions worth asking

Fiorentina are playing at home, why not see them winning?

Because they start without their left-back and, in their recent home games, they've strung together draws. The model only gives them a slight preference, far from a comfortable favorite.

Does Frosinone have the means to resist?

Their transfer window of over 100 million euros has rebuilt the entire squad. It's difficult to gauge such a reshuffled group, but they have the arguments to not just suffer.

What if both teams score?

It's possible, their last encounters saw goals from both sides. But the double chance does not depend on the number of goals: it wins as long as Fiorentina does not win.

And the bet to remember

In summary: a Fiorentina weakened on their left side, an unrecognizable Frosinone after a 100+ million transfer window, and a restart where no one has their bearings. The bet on Frosinone or the draw covers the most likely scenario, with decent confidence that Viola will not win, and more caution on the exact match flow. To avoid: rushing to back a Fiorentina win as if their name alone is enough.

* Cryptos.bet analyses, it does not bet for you. This pick is the outcome our data rates as the most solid, not a guaranteed result or betting advice.

Written by

Adrien Costa

Football Analyst

Football analyst at Cryptos.bet. I look at every match without preconceptions: recent form, absentees, a team's momentum. Guessing a scoreline doesn't interest me. Finding the matches where the market gets it wrong, where the odds pay more than the real risk, does. I work fully independent of the bookmakers.