Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United - Premier League

Two diametrically opposed summers

Tottenham have built one of the biggest transfer windows of the summer, with Jan Paul van Hecke, Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali, plus Andy Robertson for experience, at the cost of Cristian Romero's departure. On the other side, Newcastle have gone the opposite way by letting Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães go, three of their key men. One team is rebuilding upwards, the other is dealing with departures that leave a mark.

Tottenham's bogey team

Recent history doesn't bode well for Tottenham: they have lost six of their last eight league matches against Newcastle, who have won three of their last four visits to this stadium. Worse for the hosts, they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 14 consecutive meetings with this rival. The name on the shirt has changed, but the scenario repeats itself.

Backlines that give way

The common thread in these duels is goals: both teams have scored in five of their last six meetings, for an average of 3.7 goals per game. Newcastle haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last six outings and will have to manage without Sven Botman in defence, while Tottenham have conceded seven goals in the same period. Two attacks that find a way through, two defences that let them in.

Two opposite trajectories, one shared flaw: nobody really defends in this duel. The bet is both teams to score, with high confidence given how well the history and the defences align, a bit more measured if the fear of losing pushes both sides to lock up. Avoid betting on a Tottenham clean sheet: it hasn't happened against Newcastle for a very long time.